Bitcoin Halving Model Suggests $24,000 Bottom Before Year’s End

Some analysts say Bitcoin’s current price action is in line with the Bitcoin halving model, leading them to expect a $24,000 bottom before the end of the year.

The topic of Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle and its effects on BTC’s long-term price is a topic of much debate within the crypto community.

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Crypto analysts predicted that the price of Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by 2021. However, it didn’t get to this level and now analysts are wondering what will happen in the next six to 12 months.

At the moment, the price of BTC is below $40,000. Many technical analysis statistics suggest that the price is more likely to fall further than it will recover to the $40,000 to $45,000 range. Let’s take a look at what analysts think about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.

Bitcoin started the day in the red with a 0.78% drop | Source: BTC/USD chart from

Bitcoin could drop to $24,000 by the end of the year

Crypto analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user “Wolves of Crypto” discussed the four-year cycle theory on Twitter. This theory suggests that the “most likely bear market bottom for Bitcoin will occur in November/December 2022.”

Bitcoin is projected to mark its last cycle high by hitting $68,789 on November 10, 2021. So now the BTC market is in the corrective phase, usually seen after the cycle top.

The analyst said;

The 200-week SMA is the long-tested bear market bottom indicator for Bitcoin, which is why the bottom is likely to be placed at ~$24,000.

If this model is correct, we will see bitcoin pass its all-time high sometime between August and September 2023.

Independent market analyst Willy Woo suggested that Bitcoin could bottom out before the end of 2022. He said, “Orange mint seems a little undervalued here.”

Highly fluid feed shock oscillator. Source: Twitter

The “Highly Liquid Supply Shock” metric measures how much supply and demand have changed from the long-term average.

The chart above shows that when the oscillator fell to the same level it is now, Bitcoin’s price rose shortly after.

He said;

Not a bad time for investors to wait for the law of mean reversion to take effect.

BTC low in the medium term

The crypto market analyst Philip Swift has suggested that Bitcoin could be in an optimal accumulation range. The AASI or active address sentiment indicator indicates this point for the buy zone.

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“The AASI is back in the green zone. This suggests that Bitcoin’s price change is at a reasonable level relative to active change of address,” said Swift. “This tool has a good success rate in bull and bear markets for signaling a mid-term low.”

The AASI measurement is currently comparable to past measurements. For example, Bitcoin’s price was low around the same time and then rose in price a few weeks or months later.

In general, Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle, but the rise is happening more slowly than expected.

Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview

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